Modelo de minimización de los costos totales de la cuarentena y la pandemia: aplicaciones y estimaciones para el caso de República Dominicana
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pandemic
statistical value years of life
spread rate
benefit and cost of quarantine
pandemia
valor estadístico años de vida
tasa de propagación
beneficio y costo de la cuarentena
statistical value years of life
spread rate
benefit and cost of quarantine
pandemia
valor estadístico años de vida
tasa de propagación
beneficio y costo de la cuarentena
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Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (INTEC)
La cuarentena produce el beneficio del valor estadístico de los años de vida salvados y genera un costo igual a los ingresos dejados de producir por la población en confinamiento, lo cual queda representado en el modelo aquí formulado. Se incorporan las tasas de contagio y mortalidad, con y sin cuarentena, siendo del beneficio de esta la diferencia entre ambos estados. Se asume como único costo el ingreso laboral de la población en confinamiento, el que, multiplicado por su cantidad, produce como resultado el costo de este. La ecuación fundamental que iguala el costo a los beneficios de la cuarentena es luego utilizada para determinar el momento óptimo de retirar el confinamiento. El beneficio de la cuarentena se origina en la disminución del factor de propagación de la pandemia y, si se conocen los parámetros de las ecuaciones, estos pueden aplicarse por cortos períodos para determinar el momento de su retiro. Este proceso es aplicado al caso de la República Dominicana usando un período de diez días, concluyéndose que a los 50 días, con un factor de propagación de 0.9, el costo de la cuarentena se hacía mayor que su beneficio.
The quarantine produces the benefit of the statistical value of the years of life saved and generates a cost equal to the income ceased to be produced by the population with confinement, which is represented in the model formulated here. Contagion and mortality rates with and without quarantine are incorporated, the difference between the two states being of the same benefit. The labor of the confined population is assumed to be the only cost, which multiplied by its quantity, produces as a result its cost. The fundamental equation that equals cost to quarantine benefits is then used to determine the optimal time to remove confinement. The benefit of quarantine comes from the decrease in the pandemic’s spread factor, and if the parameters of the equations are known, they can be applied for short periods of time to determine the time of removal. This process is applied to the case of the Dominican Republic using a ten-day period, concluding that after 50 days, with a spread factor of 0.9, the cost of quarantine was greater than its benefit.
The quarantine produces the benefit of the statistical value of the years of life saved and generates a cost equal to the income ceased to be produced by the population with confinement, which is represented in the model formulated here. Contagion and mortality rates with and without quarantine are incorporated, the difference between the two states being of the same benefit. The labor of the confined population is assumed to be the only cost, which multiplied by its quantity, produces as a result its cost. The fundamental equation that equals cost to quarantine benefits is then used to determine the optimal time to remove confinement. The benefit of quarantine comes from the decrease in the pandemic’s spread factor, and if the parameters of the equations are known, they can be applied for short periods of time to determine the time of removal. This process is applied to the case of the Dominican Republic using a ten-day period, concluding that after 50 days, with a spread factor of 0.9, the cost of quarantine was greater than its benefit.
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Source
Science, Economy & Business; Vol. 4 No. 2 (2020): Science, Economics and Business; 75-85
Ciencia, Economía y Negocios; Vol. 4 Núm. 2 (2020): Ciencia, Economía y Negocios; 75-85
2613-8778
2613-876X
10.22206/ceyn.2020.v4i2
Ciencia, Economía y Negocios; Vol. 4 Núm. 2 (2020): Ciencia, Economía y Negocios; 75-85
2613-8778
2613-876X
10.22206/ceyn.2020.v4i2