Modelos de predicción del impacto y evolución del COVID-19 en República Dominicana
Files
Date
Subject
SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
Dominican Republic
Mathematical Models
estimation
SIR
SEIR
SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
República Dominicana
modelos matemáticos
pronóstico
SIR
SEIR
COVID-19
Dominican Republic
Mathematical Models
estimation
SIR
SEIR
SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
República Dominicana
modelos matemáticos
pronóstico
SIR
SEIR
Language:
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (INTEC)
Después de su descubrimiento en China, en diciembre de 2019, el virus SARS-CoV-2 causante de la enfermedad COVID-19, comenzó a propagarse por la mayoría de los países del mundo, provocando una cantidad importante de infectados y muertos, situación que ha generado una gran presión en los sistemas de salud y gobiernos de los diferentes países, que en muchos casos no contaban con los recursos e infraestructuras para enfrentar una pandemia provocada por el virus, como fue el caso de República Dominicana. Usando los datos públicos del avance de la pandemia en la Republica Dominicana, desde el 1 de marzo hasta el 30 de abril, se modeló y pronosticó la posible evolución del COVID-19 en este país, utilizando de tres modelos matemáticos SIR, SEIR-Extendido y log-lineal. Estos modelos permitieron proyectar los diferentes escenarios de contagios y evolución de la enfermedad, además de pronosticar el pico y el descenso de la curva de casos. Según los resultados obtenidos, el país se encontraba en un proceso de crecimiento exponencial de los contagios; el pico de los contagios fue pronosticado ocurriría entre la segunda mitad del mes de mayo y la primera mitad del mes de junio, con un estimado de infectados entre 100,000 y 200,000 individuos. Los resultados obtenidos en este estudio permiten obtener una idea de cuál podría ser el impacto humano y social del COVID-19 en la República Dominicana.
After its discovery in China, in December 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing the COVID-19 disease began to spread through countries around the world, causing a significant number of infected and dead. This situation has put high pressure on the health systems and governments of the different countries, which in many cases did not have the resources and infrastructure to face a pandemic caused by the virus, as was the case in the Dominican Republic. Using the public data of the advance of the pandemic in the Dominican Republic, from March 1 to April 30, the possible evolution of COVID-19 in this country was modeled and predicted, using three mathematical models SIR, SEIR-Extended, and log-linear. These models made it possible to project the different scenarios of infection and disease evolution, in addition to calculating the peak and decrease in the case curve. According to the results obtained, the country presented an exponential growth process of infections, with the peak of infections being projected to occur between the second half of May and the first half of June, with an estimated infected between 100,000 and 200,000 individuals. The results obtained in this study allow us to get an idea of what COVID-19 could have in human and social impact in the Dominican Republic.
After its discovery in China, in December 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing the COVID-19 disease began to spread through countries around the world, causing a significant number of infected and dead. This situation has put high pressure on the health systems and governments of the different countries, which in many cases did not have the resources and infrastructure to face a pandemic caused by the virus, as was the case in the Dominican Republic. Using the public data of the advance of the pandemic in the Dominican Republic, from March 1 to April 30, the possible evolution of COVID-19 in this country was modeled and predicted, using three mathematical models SIR, SEIR-Extended, and log-linear. These models made it possible to project the different scenarios of infection and disease evolution, in addition to calculating the peak and decrease in the case curve. According to the results obtained, the country presented an exponential growth process of infections, with the peak of infections being projected to occur between the second half of May and the first half of June, with an estimated infected between 100,000 and 200,000 individuals. The results obtained in this study allow us to get an idea of what COVID-19 could have in human and social impact in the Dominican Republic.
Description
Type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Artículos
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Artículos
Source
Science, Environment and Climate; Vol. 3 No. 1 (2020): Science, Environment and Climate; 5-21
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima; Vol. 3 Núm. 1 (2020): Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima; 5-21
2636-2333
2636-2317
10.22206/cac.2020.v3i1
Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima; Vol. 3 Núm. 1 (2020): Ciencia, Ambiente y Clima; 5-21
2636-2333
2636-2317
10.22206/cac.2020.v3i1