Transmisión del virus del dengue y su relación con factores climáticos durante los períodos intra e interepidémicos en Santo Domingo, República Dominicana
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Date
Subject
Dengue
climatic variables
incidence
temperature
correlation analysis
Dominican Republic.
dengue
variables climáticas
incidencia
temperatura
análisis de correlación
República Dominicana.
climatic variables
incidence
temperature
correlation analysis
Dominican Republic.
dengue
variables climáticas
incidencia
temperatura
análisis de correlación
República Dominicana.
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Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Intituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (INTEC)
Antecedentes: Aedes spp. y la dinámica del virus del dengue está altamente influenciada por factores ambientales. Una relación detallada entre el clima y la enfermedad en los períodos inter e intra-epidémicos podrían beneficiar la vigilancia del dengue para optimizar la preparación y las políticas adecuadas de control de vectores.
Métodos: se analizaron los informes de casos de dengue y las variables climáticas en Santo Domingo, República Dominicana, para determinar la correlación del período 2012-2018 y los diferentes tiempos de retraso. Se llevó a cabo un análisis de regresión de dichas variables para comprender mejor las relaciones entre las tasas de incidencia del dengue y los cambios climáticos.
Resultados: durante los brotes epidémicos, la temperatura (r = 0.73, p <0.001) y la humedad relativa (r = -0.22, p = 0.009) se correlacionan significativamente con la incidencia del dengue con un retraso de 9 semanas, el análisis de regresión muestra que la temperatura media (b = 62.401, p < 0.001), precipitación (b = 2.810, p <0.001) y humedad relativa (b = -5.462, p = 0.025) fueron predictores significativos. Durante los períodos inter-epidémico, la temperatura (r = 0.23, p <0.001) tuvo una correlación significativa con la incidencia del dengue con un retraso de 7 semanas, la humedad relativa (b = 1.454, p <0.05) y la temperatura media (b = 5.14, p <0.01) son predictores significativos de la cantidad de casos de dengue. La precipitación no se correlacionó significativamente con la incidencia del dengue.
Conclusiones: existe una relación no lineal entre los factores climáticos y la incidencia del dengue. La infección por dengue depende del clima, y la temperatura parece jugar un papel importante en los factores climáticos.
Introduction: Aedes spp. and Dengue Virus dynamics are highly influenced by environmental factors. A detailed relationship between climate and disease in inter and intra-epidemic periods may benefit dengue surveillance, preparedness, and adequate vector control policies. Methods: Dengue case reports and climatic variables in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, were analyzed for climate variables correlation from the period 2012-2018 and varying lag times. Regression analysis of climatic variables was carried out to better understand significant correlations between dengue incidence rates and changes in climate. Results: During epidemic outbreaks, temperature (r = 0.73, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (r = -0.22, p = 0.009) demonstrated a significant correlation with dengue incidence. Our regression analysis demonstrates an increase of 62.4 cases for each degree Celsius increased with a 9-week-lag. Regression analysis also demonstrated mean temperature (b= 62.401, p < 0.001), precipitation (b = 2.810, p < 0.001), and relative humidity (b = -5.462, p = 0.025) to be significant predictors. During inter-epidemic periods, temperature (r = 0.23, p < 0.001) had a significant correlation with dengue incidence with a 7-week-lag, which demonstrates that relative humidity (b = 1.454, p < 0.05), and mean temperature (b = 5.14, p < 0.01) are significant predictors of the quantity of dengue cases. Precipitation did not significantly correlate with dengue incidence. Conclusions: A non-linear relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence exists in the Dominican Republic. Dengue infection is climate-dependent and temperature seems to play a significant role in climatic factors.
Introduction: Aedes spp. and Dengue Virus dynamics are highly influenced by environmental factors. A detailed relationship between climate and disease in inter and intra-epidemic periods may benefit dengue surveillance, preparedness, and adequate vector control policies. Methods: Dengue case reports and climatic variables in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, were analyzed for climate variables correlation from the period 2012-2018 and varying lag times. Regression analysis of climatic variables was carried out to better understand significant correlations between dengue incidence rates and changes in climate. Results: During epidemic outbreaks, temperature (r = 0.73, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (r = -0.22, p = 0.009) demonstrated a significant correlation with dengue incidence. Our regression analysis demonstrates an increase of 62.4 cases for each degree Celsius increased with a 9-week-lag. Regression analysis also demonstrated mean temperature (b= 62.401, p < 0.001), precipitation (b = 2.810, p < 0.001), and relative humidity (b = -5.462, p = 0.025) to be significant predictors. During inter-epidemic periods, temperature (r = 0.23, p < 0.001) had a significant correlation with dengue incidence with a 7-week-lag, which demonstrates that relative humidity (b = 1.454, p < 0.05), and mean temperature (b = 5.14, p < 0.01) are significant predictors of the quantity of dengue cases. Precipitation did not significantly correlate with dengue incidence. Conclusions: A non-linear relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence exists in the Dominican Republic. Dengue infection is climate-dependent and temperature seems to play a significant role in climatic factors.
Description
Type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Source
Science and Health; Vol. 5 No. 2 (2021): Science and Health, may-August; 57-67
Ciencia y Salud; Vol. 5 Núm. 2 (2021): Ciencia y Salud, mayo-agosto; 57-67
2613-8824
2613-8816
10.22206/cysa.2021.v5i2
Ciencia y Salud; Vol. 5 Núm. 2 (2021): Ciencia y Salud, mayo-agosto; 57-67
2613-8824
2613-8816
10.22206/cysa.2021.v5i2