Popularidad presidencial y éxito o derrota del partido en el gobierno. El caso de República Dominicana 2004-2020
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Date
Subject
Elections
Government
Head of State
Democracy
Central Government
elecciones
gobierno
Jefe de Estado
democracia
gobierno central
Government
Head of State
Democracy
Central Government
elecciones
gobierno
Jefe de Estado
democracia
gobierno central
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Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (INTEC)
Se ha considerado que la popularidad de los mandatarios latinoamericanos tiene la capacidad de anticipar el éxito o derrota del partido en el gobierno. El artículo contrasta la popularidad de los presidentes dominicanos con los resultados electorales del oficialismo comprobando que la tendencia a la asociación también tiende a ser mayoritaria. Especialmente, la experiencia comparada demuestra que la baja aprobación del mandatario de turno no anticipa la derrota del partido en el gobierno si el principal partido de la oposición no constituye una opción de gobierno creíble, el artículo también analiza el caso de los comicios presidenciales de 2012. La verificación de los indicadores empíricos del concepto “oposición no es creíble” y la revisión crítica de las interpretaciones académicas sobre las causas del desenlace de las elecciones de 2012 sugieren que la oposición deja también de constituir una alternativa de gobierno creíble si en el pasado relativamente reciente tuvo un desastroso desempeño gubernamental. Por último, la experiencia comparada consigna que la alta aprobación del mandatario de turno no anticipa el éxito del oficialismo si la división interna afecta a esa fuerza política. Sometemos a verificación esa explicación y comprobamos que la participación del gobernante Partido de la Liberación Dominicano en los comicios presidenciales de 2020 se vio afectada por un proceso de esa naturaleza. La originalidad de la investigación reside en corroborar que también para el caso de República Dominicana la aprobación presidencial es un predictor robusto del éxito o derrota del partido en el gobierno.
Several authors have referred that the popularity of Latin American officials has the ability to anticipate the success or defeat of the party in government. The article contrasts the popularity of Dominican presidents with the election results of officialism by checking that the tendency to association also tends to be majority. Because comparative experience shows that the low approval of the representative on duty does not anticipate the party’s defeat in government if the main opposition party is not a credible rule option. The article also discusses the case of the 2012 presidential election ; the verification of empirical indicators of the concept of «opposition is not credible» and the critical review of academic interpretations of the causes of the outcome of the 2012 elections suggest that the opposition also ceases to constitute a credible alternative of government if in the relatively recent past it had a deastrous government performance that dragged the country into a scenario of acute social economic crisis. Finally, comparative experience indicates that the high approval of the representative on duty does not anticipate the success of officialism if internal division affects that political force. We put that explanation to verification and found that the participation of the ruling Dominican Liberation Party in the 2020 presidential election was affected by such a process. The originality of the investigation lies in corroborating that presidential approval is also a robust predictor of the party’s success or defeat in government.
Several authors have referred that the popularity of Latin American officials has the ability to anticipate the success or defeat of the party in government. The article contrasts the popularity of Dominican presidents with the election results of officialism by checking that the tendency to association also tends to be majority. Because comparative experience shows that the low approval of the representative on duty does not anticipate the party’s defeat in government if the main opposition party is not a credible rule option. The article also discusses the case of the 2012 presidential election ; the verification of empirical indicators of the concept of «opposition is not credible» and the critical review of academic interpretations of the causes of the outcome of the 2012 elections suggest that the opposition also ceases to constitute a credible alternative of government if in the relatively recent past it had a deastrous government performance that dragged the country into a scenario of acute social economic crisis. Finally, comparative experience indicates that the high approval of the representative on duty does not anticipate the success of officialism if internal division affects that political force. We put that explanation to verification and found that the participation of the ruling Dominican Liberation Party in the 2020 presidential election was affected by such a process. The originality of the investigation lies in corroborating that presidential approval is also a robust predictor of the party’s success or defeat in government.
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Type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Artículos evaluados por pares
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Artículos evaluados por pares
Source
Science and Society; Vol. 45 No. 4 (2020): Science and Society; 49-70
Ciencia y Sociedad; Vol. 45 Núm. 4 (2020): Ciencia y Sociedad; 49-70
2613-8751
0378-7680
10.22206/cys.2020.v45i4
Ciencia y Sociedad; Vol. 45 Núm. 4 (2020): Ciencia y Sociedad; 49-70
2613-8751
0378-7680
10.22206/cys.2020.v45i4